Is the economical crisis depending by a not acknowledged demografic crisis?
These days have been a number of published statistical data for Italy and now I just want to analysis of them promising myself to inform me of those about other nations that are apart of the G8 and from the other side the phenomenon of globalization compels us to believe that data from one country to the other at least in europe and north America does not differ too much.We have found that unemployment has nearly doubled in two years ( from 7% to ! 3) that the GDP in six years was reduced by 20% , and that consequently the latter given to the third Tr. del 2013, the relationship between debt and GDP rose to 3.7% , but they all pretended not so much that the next day the same newspaper that had offered the goal gave the news of the return within 3% of the debt-to- GDP as a matter acquired that occurs to me that many of our own reporters traveling with the autopilot and consider Italy as a mummy whose image is now permanently fixed as an image of the computer that has failed tuning and its user continues to look as if nothing fosse.At tthe same time we know that inflation is at 0 while the growth rate of GDP per year traveling in 2013 to -3% (I suppose the " net " inflation, which as we have seen it is 0 ) , this coexistence of economic events ( decrease in the rate of GDP and absence of inflation ) is called deflation , which involves economic stagnation and therefore the increase in unemployment and the decline in per capita wealth , but on the front page yesterday ,on the Corriere della sera mr.Draghi says that the ECB is ready to prevent it triggers the deflaction.The impression is that someone in order to prevent it from spreading the " social panic " narrates truths of convenience and that even when it happens to reveal some worrying news,forathefore truthful but at the social level unquieting,after pulling the stone hide the hand.I would at this point rely on some statistical data and observations live cross between them give the clear idea that someone hide something.In 12 years crashings and consequently road deaths fell by 30 % each and 50% the other.The retail prices of the big supermarket chains are still pretty how much the entry into circulation of euro and the tendency is to think about their fault.That the means were crowded and public places in the '80s and the frequency with which they were traffic jams in the streets of our cities or crowding the weekly markets of various cities is evident that the plate is crying and someone not only does not want to propagate the " social panic " but playing so much worst so much better how to say to bring "jella".If this data of demographic presence's fault in the West were somehow hidden to not alarm the population could this thing to achieve a series of economic data difficultly dued to the cyclical nature of the theory of crisis development model ?It would seem yes.In first we would observe,in presence of continued cause of the population decline , economic data would be hard to come back positive and if they work so,like they do,for example, if you give yourself the data as a percentage so if Italy last year fell by 3 % and the national GDP in absolute terms this is 1600.000 million $ you get a drop of about $ 50 billion in the next year but if the index rises by 1% the newspapers produce a positive chart although this represents only 1% of 15,000 million in front of the 16,000 that a single point 3 implicava.Instead serious newspapers also produce graphs in which there are data that are becoming more and more inaccurate with the growth of embarrassment tried to present the state of cose.I want here remember how in the past 10 years they have presented a short time two economic crises that marked the dominance of the financial returns on the capital gain from the real economy.In"real" economy to a period of stagnation following a certain predictability with a second phase of expansion second an homeostatic model but if , as seems to be happening , there is a withdrawal of interest from the investment in the real world capitalist economy , preferring the "virtual " things you probably would like to be in another way.The financial societies emeet derivatived products in large part "deriviting" from the risks regarding the offering a loan to purchase a property if this risk has proved effective so "derivated" financial capital acquired on the market are used to equalize the lost.This mechanism in a normal status can reach a state of equilibrium , but if the number of mortgages has exponential trend the collection of investment funds may not cover it and you have the results that is note.Also the growing interest from individuals and financial institutions for bonds institutions of the national central institute of emission can hide the interest of the latter especially for those titles in the long term that can not be rivendicated at their scadence.As to say whether the movement of bonds is very highit is easier to hide the handover of government bonds by the the hands of a private " inattenting " to a financial institution in need of concealing income budget compromising for the fame of the institute.I finish saying that the irrational and predatory tendencies of the capitalist system can produce adverse phenomena that the techniques of "simplification" or " displacement " of the economic +problems that financial experts and economists liberal implement only get worse .
By Urzi Orazio Franco.